The COVID-19 pandemic poses a once-in-a-generation threat to the world’s population. [4], This biography of a living person is in the category. Globalization was first thrown into reverse with the arrival of the Trump administration in 2016. May 15, 2020 Carmen M. Reinhart & Rob Subbaraman urge governments to cooperate on addressing supply-chain disruptions and refrain from protectionist measures. [7][19] Rogoff and Reinhart claimed that their fundamental conclusions were accurate, despite the errors. Claessens, Ricardo Hausmann, Peter Kenen, and Vincent Reinhart for very helpful comments and suggestions and, Facundo Martin, Juan Trevino, and Ioannis Tokatlidis for superb research assistance and the Center for International Political Economy for financial support. The president of the European Community recognises that the political will for public sector cost-cutting is exhausted, the IMF now suggests the chancellor find a plan B, and an investigation into the data reveals one of the intellectual underpinnings of austerity to be the result of arithmetic and coding errors. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Her best-selling book (with Kenneth S. Rogoff)  entitled This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly  documents the striking similarities of the recurring booms and busts that have characterized financial history. (Bloomberg) -- World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart said the coronavirus pandemic is turning into a major economic crisis and warned of the possibility of a … Media: Economist, Financial Times, Macro Musings podcast Tax Reform and the Political Economy of the Tax Base, Journal of Public Economics, 164, pp. [17], Fellow economist Alan Blinder credits both Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff with describing highly relevant aspects of the 2008 financial institution near-meltdown and resulting serious recession. [4] She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Founding Contributor of VoxEU,[5] and a member of Council on Foreign Relations. [9], Recommended by Peter Montiel, an M.I.T. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. Assuming this role on June 15, 2020, Reinhart provides thought leadership for the institution at an unprecedented time of crisis. [18], In 2013, Reinhart and Rogoff were in the spotlight after researchers discovered that their 2010 paper "Growth in a Time of Debt" in The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings had methodological and computational errors. [3] and Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. They settled in Pasadena, California, during the early years before moving to South Florida, where she grew up. She serves in the Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and was a member of the Congressional Budget Office Panel of Economic Advisors. Nikkei She is also a member of American Economic Association, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association,[6] and the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy. Carmen M. Reinhart (née Castellanos, born October 7, 1955) is a Cuban-born American economist and the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. ", "Rogoff and Reinhart defend their numbers", "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? [9] A few years down the road, Reinhart also received her Ph.D. from Columbia University in 1988. Reinhart is ranked among the top economists worldwide, based on publications and scholarly citations. The dataset graduate teaching at FIU,[10] Reinhart in 1978 went on to attend Columbia University graduate school. Published Version . [18], By contrast, the 2008 near-meltdown destroyed parts of the financial system and left other parts reeling and in serious need of de-leveraging. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. She has been the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School since 2012.[2]. Abstract. The Big Picture: Global Credit Themes in 2021. CARMEN M. REINHART is vice president and chief economist of the World Bank Group. (2009). "The Crisis Next Time: What We Should Have Learned from 2008. Subsequently, she spent several years at the International Monetary… READ MORE: Bank of England governor: 'Lasting changes' likely even with COVID-19 vaccine Reinhart wrote that the coming credit crunch will not be driven by a boom-bust pattern as had been the case in previous credit crunches, such as the one in Europe in 2007-2009, but instead to the the “historic magnitudes and likely persistence of the slump in economic activity.” She became the subject of general news coverage when mathematical errors were found in a research paper she co-authored. [1] They have one son. Washington: The World Bank named Harvard University professor Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping an expert in the history of debt and financial crises as the global economy suffers its deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Political flare-ups: will Brexit to US-China tensions and other political hotspots, heighten economic, financial volatility? To better understand how to solve public problems by improving policy and leadership, we engage directly with policymakers, public leaders, governments, nonprofit organizations, and for-profit businesses whose activities affect those problems. Welcome Address by Alastair Wilson, Managing Director, Global Sovereign ‍ 9:05 EST | 14:05 GMT . "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015." According to Research Papers in Economics (RePec). Previously, she was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Based on publications and scholarly citations, Reinhart is ranked among the top economists worldwide according to Research Papers in Economics (RePec). [7], On May 20, 2020, Reinhart was appointed World Bank Chief Economist, starting on June 15, 2020.[8]. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 30.1 (January 2016): 3-27. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Leigh Bureau 11 Flow of Funds aggregate the private and public sectors, where the latter is comprised of federal (net), state and local and government enterprises. Skip to main content Can American Recover? ", https://www.facebook.com/harvardkennedyschool/, https://www.linkedin.com/school/harvard-kennedy-school-of-government/, https://www.youtube.com/user/HarvardKennedySchool, http://instagram.com/harvardkennedyschool/. During wars, governments finance their war expenditures however they can, and right now there are dire needs.” “The scenario we are in is not a sustainable one,” she added. [14] Her book (with Kenneth Rogoff), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, studied the striking similarities of the recurring booms and busts that have characterized financial history. Carmen M. Reinhart University of Maryland In estimating the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, Hall finds that, when one takes account of time aggregation, point estimates are small and not significantly different from zero. [22][23][24], Reinhart met her husband, Vincent Reinhart, when they were classmates at Columbia University in the late 1970s. Large amounts of governmental debt, household debt, corporate debt, and financial institution debt were left in its wake. "The Crisis Next Time: What We Should Have Learned from 2008." ... by Guest Blogger for Net Politics. ", Reinhart, Carmen, and Vincent Reinhart. Open borders seem to facilitate the spread of infection. ", Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. [1] After Reinhart passed her field examinations, she was hired as an economist by Bear Stearns and rose to the investment bank's chief economist three years later. Washington Speakers Bureau In 2010, a pair of Harvard economists published a paper that confirmed the warnings of the global austerity movement. A separate and previous criticism is that the negative correlation between debt and growth need not be causal. She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. Carmen Reinhart. It has been translated to over 20 languages and won the Paul A. Samuelson Award. She has testified before Congress and is listed among Foreign Policy's Top 100 Global Thinkers, Thompson Reuters' The World's Most Influential Scientific Minds, and Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance. A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff", "The spreadsheet error in Reinhart and Rogoff's famous paper on debt sustainability", "Researchers Finally Replicated Reinhart-Rogoff, and There Are Serious Problems", Learn how and when to remove this template message, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Carmen_Reinhart&oldid=991266962, University of Maryland College of Behavioral and Social Sciences people, University of Maryland, College Park faculty, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from September 2020, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Pages using infobox economist as a module, Wikipedia articles with BIBSYS identifiers, Wikipedia articles with CANTIC identifiers, Wikipedia articles with SUDOC identifiers, Wikipedia articles with WORLDCATID identifiers, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. [1] After her B.A., Reinhart worked for her master's degree in Philosophy, eventually receiving this degree in 1981 from Columbia University. She has served on the editorial boards of The American Economic Review, the Journal of International Economics, International Journal of Central Banking, among others. Carmen M. Reinhart (née Castellanos, born October 7, 1955) is a Cuban-born American economist and the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. by Stewart M. Patrick. By Carmen Reinhart and Carmen M. Reinhart. 10 Indeed, this is the central argument in Carmen M. Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart (2010) originally published in November 17, 2008). Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff wrote a wildly influential book four years ago called This Time Is Different. "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015. Her work has been published in scholarly journals such as The American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and the Journal of Economic Perspectives. In fact, as Ilzetzki, Reinhart, and I show, core exchange-rate volatility was declining long before the pandemic, especially as one central bank after another skirted the zero bound. Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. 15639 January 2010, Revised January 2010 JEL No. COVID-19 Poses the Greatest Challenge Yet to the U.N. Humanitarian System. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff NBER Working Paper No. In both 2011 and 2012, she was included in the 50 Most Influential ranking of Bloomberg Markets. KENNETH ROGOFF is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and professor of economics at Harvard University. Federal Reserve Bank of New York (nonremunerated) The work argued that debt above 90% of GDP was particularly harmful to economic growth, while corrections have shown this is not the case, and that the negative correlation between debt and growth does not increase above 90% as their work had contended. How Innovation Can Help End Forced Labor in Global Supply Chains . Dear Austerity Mavens... Post by kalm » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:28 pm...you're doing it wrong. In December 2018, Reinhart received the King Juan Carlos Prize in Economics and Nabe's Adam Smith Award. [10][15] Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises in both advanced economies and emerging markets. The American Economic Review 106.5 (May 2016): 574–580. : Humus The Proud Location: Northern Palouse. Smith Richardson Foundation, Bloomberg The vast uncertainty surrounding the possible spread of COVID-19 and the duration of the near-economic standstill required to combat it make forecasting little different from guessing. The appointment is effective June 15, President David Malpass said in a statement Wednesday. New York University Moreover, since interest rates were already near zero, the standard monetary tool of lowering rates was not going to provide much help. [18], In a normal recession such as 1991 or 2000, the Keynesian tools of tax cuts and infrastructure spending (fiscal stimulus), and lowered interest rates (monetary stimulus), will usually right the economic ship in a matter of months and lead to recovery and economic expansion. Clearly, this is a “whatever-it-takes” moment for large-scale, outside-the-box fiscal and monetary policies. But the political will to undertake these measures may well be lacking if countries decide to turn inward rather than prop up the global economy. And because of this debt, the normal tools of tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending were somewhat less available and/or politically difficult to achieve. This page was last edited on 29 November 2020, at 04:49. He concludes that the elasticity is unlikely to be much above 0.1 and may well be zero. Harvard Kennedy School is proud of its energetic involvement in the world. She also manages the Bank’s Development Economics Department. ", Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. Reinhart, Carmen M., Vincent Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch. May 6, 2020 Joseph E. Stiglitz, et al. She received her Ph.D. from Columbia University. ", Reinhart, Carmen M., Vincent Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch. 20 posts • Page 1 of 1. kalm Supporter Posts: 47301 Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:36 pm I am a fan of: Eastern A.K.A. (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134:2, 599–646, 2019. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly reminded readers that the catastrophic 2008-09 … Restructuring Argentina’s Private Debt is Essential Matías Baglietto/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Agenda . in Economics (summa cum laude) in 1975. (2010) ". Foreign Affairs 97.6 (November/December 2018): 84–97. Carmen M. Reinhart is Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland. are Fiscal Multipliers? Asked whether central banks buying bonds to keep yields low is ultimately a zero-sum game when everyone’s doing it, Reinhart said, “This is a war. 9:00 EST | 14:00 GMT . [1] In the 1990s, she held several positions in the International Monetary Fund. "Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath." [11], She has written and published on a variety of topics in macroeconomics and international finance, including: international capital flows, capital controls, inflation and commodity prices, banking and sovereign debt crises, currency crashes, and contagion. Professor Reinhart held positions as Chief Economist and Vice President at the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. From 2001 to 2003, she returned to the International Monetary Fund as deputy director at the Research Department. Outside of Reinhart's professional activities, she has received compensation for conference-related and speaking engagements, advisory boards, as well as writing and royalties. [16], She also has written monthly columns for international media organization Project Syndicate since 2014. Princeton University Press, Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System, Copyright © 2020 The President and Fellows of, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy, Taubman Center for State and Local Government, Reinhart, Carmen. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Wikimedia Commons During their analysis, Herndon, Ash and Pollin obtained the actual spreadsheet that Reinhart and Rogoff … It has been translated to over 20 languages and won the Paul A. Samuelson Award, among others. The authors also followed up with a couple of papers arguing the same thing. [2] Previously, she was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. In the field of political business cycles, my 1988 Review of Economic Studies paper with Anne Sibert and my 1990 American Economic Review paper explore the incentives politicians have to time budget splurges prior to elections. Journal of the European Economic Association 14.1 (February 2016): 215–251. Kenneth Rogoff, and Carmen Reinhart. Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises in both advanced economies and emerging markets. Project Syndicate "The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention. Growth in a Time of Debt, also known by its authors' names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in a non peer-reviewed issue of the American Economic Review in 2010. She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. However, we recognize that such engagement can raise questions about perceived and potential conflicts of interest, so we disclose publicly the key professional activities of our faculty outside the Kennedy School. [18], Recovery from what Blinder terms a Reinhart-Rogoff recession may require debt forgiveness, either directly or implicitly, by encouraging somewhat higher than normal rates of inflation. 197-2010, 2018. Pro-austerity forces here and elsewhere in the world have seized upon the … She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. CHRISTOPH TREBESCH is a professor of International Finance at … The speed of the unwinding will only pick up as blame is assigned for the current mess. When the family moved to Miami, Reinhart started college at two-year Miami Dade College, before transferring to Florida International University, where she received a B.A. Indeed, economist Paul Krugman argued that even the combination of the Oct. 2008 bailout plus the Feb. 2009 bailout did not go big enough, although Blinder states that they were large compared to previous bailouts. Mar 23, 2020 Carmen M. Reinhart. International Monetary Fund Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (Bloomberg Markets) -- When Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published their heavyweight history of financial crises in late 2009, the title was ironic. * The thesis of the book is that when a government has a debt-to-GDP ratio above 90 percent, it is terrible for economic growth. Restructuring Argentina’s Private Debt is Essential. Bibtex Slides Published Version Appendix How Big (Small?) Even the serious recession of 1982, which Blinder states "was called the Great Recession in its day", fits comfortably within this category of a typical recession, which will respond to the standard tools. Learn more in our new issue. "Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. By Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart. [20][21], A review by Herndon, Ash, and Pollin of her widely cited paper with Rogoff, "Growth in a Time of Debt", argued that "coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics lead to serious errors that inaccurately represent the relationship between public debt and GDP growth among 20 advanced economies in the post-war period". Carmen Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. In addition to my position as a faculty member at Harvard, I am occasionally compensated for my participation in outside activities, such a speaking engagements, conference participation, reviewing, writing/editing articles or reports, royalties, consulting, and serving on panels/advisory boards. by Guest Blogger for Women Around the World. Political discussions. World Bank, Congressional Budget Office Advisory Board (nonremunerated) Born in Havana, Cuba, Reinhart arrived in the United States on January 6, 1966, at the age of 10, with her mother and father and three suitcases. E2,E3,E6,F3,F4,N10 ABSTRACT We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Peterson Institute for International Economics, "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems", "Professor Carmen Reinhart Joins Harvard Kennedy School Faculty", "Reinhart, Rogoff... and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs", "Carmen Reinhart Appointed as World Bank Group Chief Economist", "They Did Their Homework (800 Years of It)", "Romer roundtable: Debt will keep growing", "Don't Buy the Chirpy Forecasts: The history of banking crises indicates this one may be far from over", "Playing Down the Price Tag of the Fiscal Stimulus", Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, "What Did We Learn from the Financial Crisis, the Great Recession, and the Pathetic Recovery?,", "How Much Unemployment Was Caused by Reinhart and Rogoff's Arithmetic Mistake? "The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention." I have received compensation or other payments in excess of $500 from the following organizations: Conference-related and speaking engagements, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City She has been listed among Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance, Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers, and Thompson Reuters' The World's Most Influential Scientific Minds. Washington: The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. Browse all articles written by Carmen Reinhart for Foreign Affairs. Although this is not the first disease outbreak to spread around the globe, it is the first one that governments have so fiercely combated. [1] In 1988 she returned to Columbia to obtain her Ph.D. under the supervision of Robert Mundell. 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